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New truck sales; waiting on chips |
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WF owner
Orange Level Joined: 12 May 2013 Location: Bombay NY Points: 4388 |
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Posted: 08 Jul 2021 at 5:37pm |
There is a good article on Yahoo News today about causes of the semiconductor shortage.
Here is a little of the gist of it. Many factors conspired to cause the semiconductor shortage that’s constraining the production of cars and many other products. The coronavirus pandemic massively disrupted supply chains. Remote workers stocked up on chip heavy computers and other gizmos. Same with bored consumers doing more streaming and gaming. Fires at two Japanese chip plants cut into supply. Then a surprisingly strong recovery produced demand far more robust than manufacturers expected. In 2018, as part of the trade war with China, the USA imposed 25% tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese imports, including semiconductors—the first of several salvos in the trade war with China. Those tariffs are still in effect, and chip imports from China have fallen by half as the price has gone up China now accounts for only about 5% of imported semiconductors, according to research firm Panjiva. But imports from other countries have not gone up to offset the lost supply from China. A 5% contraction in supply during a shortage can have outsized effects. In 2019, the USA banned the sale of American-made components, including semiconductors, to the Chinese telecom giant Huawei, in an effort to disenfranchise the maker of networking gear and smartphones. That had several undesirable consequences. For one, it created a disincentive to make chips in the United States because producers couldn’t sell them to one of the world’s largest customers. Huawei begin to get chips from suppliers in Japan and South Korea that weren’t subject to the ban. China also boosted its own production of chips, and it began hoarding them, in case the U.S. action intensified. The U.S. semiconductor industry says the actions cost U.S. firms millions in sales The trade actions were meant to address legitimate Chinese abuses. But this unilateral approach left China many escape hatches while causing substantial collateral damage. The fiasco contributed to the current shortages, hurting American businesses and workers |
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Tbone95
Orange Level Access Joined: 31 Aug 2012 Location: Michigan Points: 11388 |
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So true WF, the local dealers are really taking a beating. 2 of them have taken the opportunity to seal coat their lot, almost no cars to move. It’s nuts. A couple people I know have ran into a dealer or salesman off hours and they offer to buy your car on the spot. I’m beginning to wonder how long they will stay in business, it’s not like there’s huge numbers move in this area to begin with.
Was hoping to get a better vehicle for my son before he went to Mississippi, price on the model we were looking at went up 15% in a two to three week period. (Used) |
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WF owner
Orange Level Joined: 12 May 2013 Location: Bombay NY Points: 4388 |
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No dealer is going to eat a $2500 upgrade, especially with supply being so bad. They actually have waiting lists of customers looking for vehicles. Several local new car dealers are actually buying used cars, so they have something to sell. Jay, you need to take a look at local dealers. There are no vehicles sitting on any dealer lots for 3 months. I recently heard of a dealer that has a selling price of $5000 over sticker price for a new truck. The value of used vehicles is way up, because demand is way up, due to the lack of new vehicles. I traded in a 2016 F-350 Lariat 4x4 diesel with 56,000 miles. The dealer had it listed for $56,600 (sticker was $64,800 new).
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WF owner
Orange Level Joined: 12 May 2013 Location: Bombay NY Points: 4388 |
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From what my Ford dealer is telling me, if you start over, it may well be a year before you get a truck. He said they are not giving an expected delivery date to anyone looking for a new truck right now.
I ordered my truck January 29, 2021. I picked it up April 20 (it was in the week before, but I was out of town). The general manager told me if I had waited two weeks later to order, I probably wouldn't have got the truck until fall. I really feel bad for the dealers. I deal with a local dealership. They are straight shooters and members of our community. They have a good business, but very few vehicles to sell. |
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jaybmiller
Orange Level Access Joined: 12 Sep 2009 Location: Greensville,Ont Points: 21466 |
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sounds like 'bait and switch'.... Now IF dealer 'ate' the $2500 upgrade AND the truck DID arrive July(next month...) maybe accept that deal, otherwise,get deposit back, shop elsewhere. Thing is ,with all the inventory being in a 'computer', they KNOW exactly where all the trucks are ,at least in Canada. There could be 'your truck', one state over, in another color,sitting on a lot for past 3 months........
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3 D-14s,A-C forklift, B-112
Kubota BX23S lil' TOOT( The Other Orange Tractor) Never burn your bridges, unless you can walk on water |
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Pat the Plumber CIL
Orange Level Joined: 11 Sep 2009 Location: Springfield,Il Points: 4677 |
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I ordered a chevy 2500 hd 4 wd Work truck with a Z71 offroad package Feb 2nd 2021. Dealer told me 10 to 12 weeks. That came and gone. Dealer finally calls and says that the plant sent them an email saying no work trucks (WT) until October and will be 2022 models. He claimed that an upgrade to LT package 2500$ more and truck should get built by August. Time will tell . Was hoping to get new truck before I head out west in late August.
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You only need to know 3 things to be a plumber;Crap rolls down hill,Hot is on the left and Don't bite your fingernails
1964 D-17 SIV 3 Pt.WF,1964 D-15 Ser II 3pt.WF ,1960 D-17 SI NF,1956 WD 45 WF. |
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Red Bank
Orange Level Access Joined: 18 Apr 2018 Location: Germanton NC Points: 1049 |
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If they don’t change the VIN that will tell you what year it is. I have a 2017 F-350 that had 2017 window sticker and has a 2018 VIN which tells me it was probably built the last two weeks of production of 2017 before they switched to 2018 production.
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dee_veloper
Orange Level Joined: 12 Apr 2021 Location: USA Points: 1168 |
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A good indicator of the real date can be found by checking the date on the tires.
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Don't confuse my personality with my attitude.
My personality is who I am. My attitude depends on who you are. |
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LouSWPA
Orange Level Access Joined: 11 Sep 2009 Location: Clinton, Pa Points: 24021 |
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I am still confident of this;
I will see the goodness of the Lord in the land of the living. Wait for the Lord; be strong and take heart and wait for the Lord. Ps 27 |
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DMiller
Orange Level Access Joined: 14 Sep 2009 Location: Hermann, Mo Points: 29500 |
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Can happen
Very similar to Farm machines and heavy equipment where as stay in producers inventory are not date coded until sold. My 180d was built in 1973 according to a local dealer owner that still had some reference books, said was not sold until 1975 so is listed as a 1974 which is as convoluted as it can get. Several older Cat machines I had worked on had date stamps that showed them 2-4 years older than the s/n code reports showed them to be. Inventory is new until delivered to a customer. |
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TimNearFortWorth
Orange Level Joined: 12 Dec 2009 Points: 2014 |
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So my brother in Upstate NY has been tossing around the idea of trading in his loaded GMC 2500 gasser 4WD and getting another diesel. 2015 GMC just turned 20K on the clock and dealers are now offering what he paid for it new but they want a pretty penny for a Ram or Duramax used with 50 - 100K miles.
We chat often while I'm on the road and I've told him he is crazy to get rid of the GMC gasser as it's still like new but he likes to call and relay conversations he has with dealers. A while back I asked him to feel these dealers out on what they are going to do with all the 2021 models waiting on chips and what this will do to the regular roll-out date for the 2022's. Last week he asked a large dealer that question and advised the GM dealer told him that GM had advised just that morning that all 2021 model pickups that eventually get shipped will be registered as 2022 year models. Something tells me that lawyers will be getting involved with this one, if in-fact true.
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jaybmiller
Orange Level Access Joined: 12 Sep 2009 Location: Greensville,Ont Points: 21466 |
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gee, I've got some Intel 4004 micros (1st ones for Intel..)in the basement..and they still WORK !!! Jay
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3 D-14s,A-C forklift, B-112
Kubota BX23S lil' TOOT( The Other Orange Tractor) Never burn your bridges, unless you can walk on water |
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sho-man1
Bronze Level Access Joined: 14 Sep 2009 Location: Wylie, TX Points: 181 |
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Jack Kilby's Office (memorialized) is downstairs from mine. He worked through the summer shutdown to create one substrate with capacitor, resistor, inductor and some transistors built on top of it. The first integrated circuit. He said he didn't think about appearances of his device other than it worked. He said if I would have known the impact of it, I would have prettied it up some...
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JohnColo
Orange Level Joined: 03 Apr 2020 Location: Niwot, CO Points: 1258 |
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My orchard business partner's late father in law, Jack Kilby, invented the microprocessor in the late 1950's while everyone else at TI was on Christmas break, (he was a new hire). Anyway, he won the Noble prize for science and was interviewed by a reporter from Time magazine who asked if he now had any regrets for his discovery. He mentioned the use of chips in Land Mines but what seemed silly to him was the birthday card his sister sent him that sang "Happy Birthday" when he opened it. That was 20 plus years ago...
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jaybmiller
Orange Level Access Joined: 12 Sep 2009 Location: Greensville,Ont Points: 21466 |
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Steve, yes a LOT of 'stuff' to charge that pack. Typical, welcome to the Lithium-Ion battery world. EACH cell, yours has 5, needs to be individually monitored and charged, else...well. 'bad' things can happen. Also some mfrs chargers 'look' at the 'battery pack' and test if it's one of theirs. If not, the charger will NOT recharge the battery. Inkjet printers were/are like this, there's a 'chip' IN the ink cartridge, so you have to buy THEIR ink carts. well, unless you reverse engineer what 'they' did, then you can use anyone's cart. If you want to be truly amazed or dumbfounded, have a look at the actual schematics for any E-car 'battery pack' !
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3 D-14s,A-C forklift, B-112
Kubota BX23S lil' TOOT( The Other Orange Tractor) Never burn your bridges, unless you can walk on water |
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Ray54
Orange Level Access Joined: 22 Nov 2009 Location: Paso Robles, Ca Points: 4346 |
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Lou you are luck most of us are old, so if we think and remember we can put the Willis comment in the right show.
But to the more important stuff. Most times it seem safer to believe the conspiracy theories until proven wrong. As so many seem to becoming the reality. So, so sad. Drive us back to living in a cave, because of "global warming" that is now "climate change" because we just cannot get that damm ocean to flood Washington DC and drown the swamp. But ever little thing that has worked for decades like a ice maker now needs a computer to work. Thank about it. Why do rich people that all promote the PC thinking still buy ocean front property for really big bucks. It should be under water in a year or 2.
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PaulB
Orange Level Joined: 12 Sep 2009 Location: Rocky Ridge Md Points: 4409 |
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All I've ever needed was my right foot and right arm. NO STINKING CHIPS NESSARRY The time I was working for a company that had those Blankity Blank Atuoshift transmissions was the worst few years of my 45+ years of driving. If I'm going to drive an automatic, I'll have an Allison Real trucks have 2 sticks !!!
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If it was fun to pull in LOW gear, I could have a John Deere.
If you can't make it GO... make it SHINY |
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steve(ill)
Orange Level Access Joined: 11 Sep 2009 Location: illinois Points: 77740 |
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YEP !!! ...
and if i listen to Jay, this thing is probably collecting my data and sending it to the CHINEESE !! If it takes 16 CHIPS to charge a 19 volt battery, just think what it takes to shift a 10 speed truck transmission !!
Edited by steve(ill) - 01 Jun 2021 at 4:28pm |
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Like them all, but love the "B"s.
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LouSWPA
Orange Level Access Joined: 11 Sep 2009 Location: Clinton, Pa Points: 24021 |
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I am still confident of this;
I will see the goodness of the Lord in the land of the living. Wait for the Lord; be strong and take heart and wait for the Lord. Ps 27 |
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LouSWPA
Orange Level Access Joined: 11 Sep 2009 Location: Clinton, Pa Points: 24021 |
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I am still confident of this;
I will see the goodness of the Lord in the land of the living. Wait for the Lord; be strong and take heart and wait for the Lord. Ps 27 |
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JW in MO
Orange Level Joined: 16 Feb 2010 Location: South KC Area Points: 2595 |
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I worked on commercial ice makers since the mid 70’s, I could fix most any machine with either a pressure switch, timer or a thermostat, no electronics necessary. New energy standards changed that, now, Manitowoc uses a microphone, (about the size of a 3/16” watch battery), in the water stream and puts the unit into harvest based on a predetermined decibel setting made by the fracturing ice. I’m sure that alone requires a couple of chips not counting all the rest of the stuff it does.
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Maximum use of available resources!
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steve(ill)
Orange Level Access Joined: 11 Sep 2009 Location: illinois Points: 77740 |
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Here is a good example... 20 years ago i had a MECHANICAL battery charger.... Today i have a 19v battery powered drill that "something" went wrong with the "BATTERY"... i open it up and it has a CIRCUIT BOARD inside with the battery cells... It measures the battery voltage, charger voltage, rate of charge, any bad cells, anyone trying ti BYPASS the system, time to charge, etc, etc..... here is the "BOARD".... i count 16 CHIPS inside to do all the work.. Some are very small and probably just ON-OFF switches or timers, but still.... 16 CHIPS to charge a BATTERY !
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Like them all, but love the "B"s.
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jaybmiller
Orange Level Access Joined: 12 Sep 2009 Location: Greensville,Ont Points: 21466 |
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All the 'chips' I use are good from -40*C to +125*C... never had a 'supply' issue.
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3 D-14s,A-C forklift, B-112
Kubota BX23S lil' TOOT( The Other Orange Tractor) Never burn your bridges, unless you can walk on water |
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sho-man1
Bronze Level Access Joined: 14 Sep 2009 Location: Wylie, TX Points: 181 |
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"Chips" used in automobile manufacturing/production have much different rules/specifications than consumer electronics...
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DMiller
Orange Level Access Joined: 14 Sep 2009 Location: Hermann, Mo Points: 29500 |
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How many trucks were on that dealer lot when ordered?
How many now? Used to be could buy off the inventory and drive off, there are next to no inventories currently other than those awaiting parts. |
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dr p
Orange Level Joined: 24 Feb 2019 Location: new york Points: 1011 |
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I ordered a new ram 2500 14 January. Got it on Friday
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Bill_MN
Orange Level Joined: 12 Sep 2009 Location: Sioux Falls, SD Points: 1463 |
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There was also a large fire at one of the big chip factories in Asia that they are just now getting back online, not to mention the shipping container issues affecting just about everything imported.
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1951 WD #78283, 1918 Case 28x50 Thresher #76738, Case Centennial B 2x16 Plow
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DMiller
Orange Level Access Joined: 14 Sep 2009 Location: Hermann, Mo Points: 29500 |
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This is far from over, GM said it was seeing a trickle return of processor chips but they are still on the short end. There is talk of reductions of the load of processors in machines as this is NUTS, will see where that goes.
Our 2017 Exploder has 14 processors in it that speak to each other and manage the car. My 2010 Pimpala has three. The last semi I looked at was a Freightliner Cascadia, had 17 and a SAM Module to manage all the rest, worthless crap when fails and do so repetitively. My 2012 Harley has but two processors, buddy of mine has a 2015 similar looking machine, has Seven, working everything but clutch and shifting. Edited by DMiller - 31 May 2021 at 6:16pm |
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Thad in AR.
Orange Level Access Joined: 12 Sep 2009 Location: Arkansas Points: 9273 |
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Saw a 2018 Ford Diesel 4x4
For sale. Had 100000 miles. They were asking $67000 and supposedly it sold. |
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TramwayGuy
Orange Level Access Joined: 19 Jan 2010 Location: Northern NY Points: 11204 |
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Fella I know in NH ordered a new (GM) work truck; dealer called three weeks later to tell him they couldn’t give a delivery date due to chip shortage. The key fob!
Told him if he went up a level on trim that had pushbutton starting, he could get a truck. $8000 upgrade. On the other hand, I ordered a new Ram Cummins at the same time, and it’s ready at the dealer. |
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