How to determine fair cash rent for cropland

If you search it, your ag extension office may have a site that posts averages in your area.

That is a tough one. So many variables go into a lease but i like 25% as a start.

I'd like to make as much as the land owner per acre. That is tricky math with no set answer.

modirt wrote: How does this sound.........three year average yield from crop insurance x three year average price from crop insurance (revenue plan basis), then 30% of whatever that number is?  Or........what other methods are used?

Unless high yield production(HYP), guessing average county yield(ACY) averages may look like below??
HYP could add 30-50% bu to ACY top ends??

ACY 3yr numbers,,,?
Corn 3yrAve ~ 170,180,190,200?
Soybean ~ 40,50,60,70,80?
Wheat ~ 60,70,80,90,100?
Alfalfa ~ 2,2.5,3,3.5 tons/acre?
How do any of those numbers lineup for your ROI?

3 yr average insurance price per bushel per crop, maybe not best approach?
Right now concerns;
Current soil drought conditions,
current commodity prices,
price of land per acre,
Tariffs,
global commodity supply/demand,
Shift from LeNina to ElNino?
Local weather forecasts,
Global weather forecasts,
Crop insurance options,
interest rates,
inflation,
input costs,
ROI,,,etc.

In a nut shell, it’s an Extremely open set of variables? If it were me, I would not cash rent. I’d crop share contract & I’d use current prices - across the board for current year then use next years numbers for next year etc.. i’d figure my ROI levels & do the math in reverse. Then look at my numbers, consider my position, & make an educated suitable proposal.
I would not cash rent in 2026-28.

Modirt, congratulations of such great crop yields & a wonderful 50-60 year tenant & landlord relationship, knowledge, & experience. That speaks volumes. Nothing is guaranteed, but If the past shares towards the future, the future has a better than average chance.