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good times & grain prices

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wi50 View Drop Down
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    Posted: 19 Jan 2011 at 8:07am

How about the recent grain markets? 

Kind of nice for a change though I'm afraid it's going to be a battle with land rent rates.  Equipment prices are likely going to raise, new alwayse seams to go up 4%-8% every year and the used markets seam to follow.
 
A lot of times these high prices are not good, it just takes everything else with it and when they come down it takes time for the rest to correct itself.
 
I wonder how much $6+ corn and $14+ beans are left to sell, and I wonder what we will see for prices in the future.  I've never used much of a marketing plan, other than if I need money to sell some crop, or if I think the price is to good to refuse to sell some, which leaves me thinking that I should price some of it now.
 
I do a lot of custom work for the dairy farmers, it's a lot harder to collect from them and high grain prices are not going to help them. 
"see what happens when you have no practical experience doing something...... you end up playing with calculators and looking stupid on the internet"
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Dave in il View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dave in il Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jan 2011 at 8:31am
A friend of mine was telling me yesterday that he was talking to a landowner that was saying he was going to tell his tenant that cash rent has to go up to $300 or more.
 
We both know the tenant and would be suprised if he doesn't say ok. We're not talking  200 bushel corn land either. I know 150 b/a @ $4.00 is $600/ acre but fuel, fertilizer, machinery and labor costs keep going up in lockstep with prices.
 
I guess it's a matter of what you can insure with crop insurance and how little per acre you need. Obviously the more you farm the less margin per acre you need.
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Kurzy View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kurzy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jan 2011 at 8:46am
First time I got to rent my land out to crop farming. $30.00 an acre. Other wise you keeping taking hay off or give it away to some one. Lots of land sits empty here. Most people happy just to let some one use their land. Central WI.
 
Kurzy
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Steve M C/IL View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Steve M C/IL Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jan 2011 at 9:15am
Yeah,the selling price looks good but the people selling the inputs are making sure you don't make too much money.
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Andrew(southernIL) View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Andrew(southernIL) Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jan 2011 at 9:53am
Our local for cash ended yesterday at $6.35 corn and $14.02 beans. I'm liking it. We don't farm much but still have little better than half the corn crop in the bin.
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wi50 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote wi50 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jan 2011 at 10:12am
I buy a GRIP type insurance.  A year agoe when prices were low, I bought a different type of insurance, just some minimal protection and it was cheap.  We had record yeilds and these high prices, so it was good luck that I didn't spend much on my insurance, there's no way one would have collected anything.
 
Now with these prices setting the "spring" price bar high, I feel that I have to buy at the absolute max. rate.  If the prices drop, I collect, we have poor yeilds, I collect.  If we have higher prices  in the comeing fall and record yeilds, I don't collect but with numbers like that then the cost of the insurance is quite small compared to the returns.  I've used this for a plan in the past and have done well on it.
 
In our area we can generally get 140 bu average corn, last year we managed real close to 200.  Our land rent is from $55-100 per acre, but I bet it's going to be higher this time.  I bought my fertalizer, seed and a pile of fuel back in Oct and Nov. when prices were reasonable.  Generally give the landlords a little bonus when things are good, and do everything I can to maintain good relations.  A little goes a long way with most of them. 


Edited by wi50 - 19 Jan 2011 at 10:14am
"see what happens when you have no practical experience doing something...... you end up playing with calculators and looking stupid on the internet"
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Butch(OH) View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Butch(OH) Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jan 2011 at 10:17am

My ground isnt great but not terrible for this part of the country, corn went 195 last year. My phone has been rining hard with offers and I tell em all the same thing. Where were you at when farming was skinny??? My tennant has paid on time, good year or bad, for going on 20 years. I think that is called win/win? Hope he makes a mint this year.



Edited by Butch(OH) - 19 Jan 2011 at 10:19am
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John (C-IL) View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote John (C-IL) Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jan 2011 at 12:26pm
Originally posted by Butch(OH) Butch(OH) wrote:

My ground isnt great but not terrible for this part of the country, corn went 195 last year. My phone has been rining hard with offers and I tell em all the same thing. Where were you at when farming was skinny??? My tennant has paid on time, good year or bad, for going on 20 years. I think that is called win/win? Hope he makes a mint this year.

 
I like your attitude Butch, there is a lot that can be said for a trusted and long term tenant. Some of those high dollar short term operators will rape the land and leave you with a piece of **** and a bad taste in your mouth, and then you will wonder why everyone giggles when you walk in the coffee shop and none of the decent operators will rent your land.
 
Here's a HOORAY for you Butch.
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CTuckerNWIL View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CTuckerNWIL Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jan 2011 at 2:00pm
My family is kinda in the opposite position of you Butch. The guy that rented my Great uncles old place has had it for a long time. He got by paying less than average rent cause Dad didn't want to ask for more. Several times other local farmers had asked to rent the ground and told him what they would pay, which ways above what we were getting. Now Dad and his brother are gone and a good neighbor and good trustee of the land says he will pay $50 over what we have been getting. I think it's a no brainer when the guy wanting to rent, takes good care of the ground and will pay more. 
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Gerald J. View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gerald J. Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jan 2011 at 2:14pm
High cash rents need a close scrutiny of fertilizer applications. High rents tend to cause renters to skimp and move on. To mine the land, leaving it in poor condition.

Basis in central Iowa is a lot poorer than in southern Illinois, but I sold 2011 new crop corn yesterday for $5.25, 52 cents off CBOT. I missed the high price of the day by 2 cents, which I don't think is bad.

My land is rented crop share so I get to play the markets and I've sold 61% of the size crop I got for my share in 2010. The contracted corn covers more than my share of the costs.

Gerald J.
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ac45 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ac45 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jan 2011 at 2:27pm
Farming is a busineess, to be honest there are a lot of uninformed landlords, elderly, not so smart , no so savy, or too nice to raise prices, that get screwed on their rent.   As prices go up rent should and will too.  
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Butch(OH) View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Butch(OH) Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jan 2011 at 4:02pm
yessir, there is all kinds that own land and all kinds that farm it. I have seen about every situation mentioned here. My post doesnt realy read like the intent of it, my own fault for rambling on, sorry. 
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Gerald J. View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gerald J. Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jan 2011 at 4:31pm
As a recent farmer and a land owner, I think that without tying cash rent to the achieved market price (not just to the local cash prices) you have to renegotiate the cash price at least twice a year, maybe monthly. I think that crop share, which exposes me to risk of crop loss and makes me merchandise my share of the crop is most equitable with the tenant. In my case he delivers the crop to the elevator 4 miles away, but I pay half the seed, fertilizer, and herbicide and does the rest and all the work. I get half the crop.

Today those high corn prices fell off a cliff, glad I sold yesterday.

Gerald J.
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Dave in il View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dave in il Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jan 2011 at 5:03pm
Local land just sold yesterday, $8175 / acre. Local family that bought it also owns 1/3 of the local Deere mega dealership. Good returns from their farming operation and the dealership, they probably needed the tax writeoff. LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Skyhighballoon(MO) Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jan 2011 at 5:30pm
Gerald - I work a very similar arrangement with my farming partner since I work full time in St. Louis and my farm is 140 miles away in Central, MO. 

For my 3 bottom fields we split fertilizer, seed & herbicide.  I'm responsible for lime & other field improvements like the drain tile we just put in 2 of the bottoms.   He is supposed to do all the field tillage (mostly all no-till plant or drill), fertilizer spreading, planting & harvesting.  We always sub out the herbicide spraying.  If I do any of the combining with my EIII for either fun or to get it out sooner then he pays me for the custom combining (I give him a rate at about half the going rate).  If I have a plow day in one of the bottoms to do some tillage that's for fun on me.  We then split the crop 50/50 and any USDA payments 50/50.  The acreage (about 45 acres) is small enough we don't bother with the extra expense of crop insurance.  I should note my farming partner also used to have a full time job himself as well outside of farming but about the last 2 years that'd be better described as he's self-employed.  It has in general worked out very well for the both of us.  It helps that we were personal friends before this and we are both very reasonable people so any issues we've had were worked out.

I also have another six acre hilltop that he can't get easily get big equipment (i.e. a JD 9500 combine) across the creek and thru the pastures to get to it.  So that field is mine 100%.  I only run a beans/wheat rotation there so I pay him to do the custom drilling for me which he does the same day as whatever bottom is getting the same crop.  I do any tillage, fertilizer spreading & combining and pay 100% of the inputs.    I plan to expand the planted part in this hill top to about 8 or 9 acres in 2012.  I also plan to add another 5 acre hilltop in 2012 that is mainly unused right now (not in CRP).   Need to do fence repair work around that field first.

We used to spilt hay ground inputs/revenue until fertilizer prices made that a net money loser for me.  So I told him at that point he could use my hay ground rent-free and keep 100% of the hay but he has to buy 100% of the fertilizer.    Mike
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Dave in il View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dave in il Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jan 2011 at 6:01pm
Originally posted by Gerald J. Gerald J. wrote:

As a recent farmer and a land owner, I think that without tying cash rent to the achieved market price (not just to the local cash prices) you have to renegotiate the cash price at least twice a year, maybe monthly. I think that crop share, which exposes me to risk of crop loss and makes me merchandise my share of the crop is most equitable with the tenant. In my case he delivers the crop to the elevator 4 miles away, but I pay half the seed, fertilizer, and herbicide and does the rest and all the work. I get half the crop.

Today those high corn prices fell off a cliff, glad I sold yesterday.

Gerald J.
 
Your quickly becoming a minority among landowners. I wish there were more like you instead.
 
My inlaws didn't think 50/50 was "fair" when my Mother in law passed away, turned out that was the least of my problems trying to farm for them, the wife said it wasn't worth it so we swapped our share for land closer to home and moved on.
 
We do cash rent land, if your going to farm today it's a fact of life. Renters "mining" land of nutrients has been mentioned but I've had to explain that a lease should include a clause that I should be reimbursed for carry over nutrients and lime should the lease not be renewed and the landlord was baffled. What about repairing tiles and waterways? How do you maintain land properly when you may lose the lease and your investment in money and labor the next year?
 
Fortunately my cash rent land is a solid long term relationship just like our 50/50 land. I care for it like I would want my own land farmed, and the people who own it are happy and want me to make a decent living. I think variable rate cash rents will soon be normal, there will be a base rent rate and then at harvest a bonus will be paid if yields or prices are above the base.
 
Don't rub it in, I still have about 1/3 of my crop. LOL
 
I just keep remembering the last time we had $5 corn it was eventually followed by being corn less than $2 for a long time. How low can it go if it hits $7? LOL!
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Nathan (SD) View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Nathan (SD) Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jan 2011 at 6:18pm

18 cents down on $6.50. Cliffs must be shorter in Iowa.

 
 
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Gerald J. View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gerald J. Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jan 2011 at 6:24pm
I didn't have any corn for sale when it hit 7, and wasn't ready to gamble on new crop that didn't get that high. And it didn't stay there long either. Like this week.

Gerald J.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote wi50 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Jan 2011 at 1:51pm
I ran around to see some landlords in the past few days.  I've gottne the same reply from all.  Same rent as before, they are happy to have the checks when they want them and have some favors done and things taken care of.  I usually try to give a little bonus to them when things are good.
 
I'll try my best to do dozer work, keep up waterways, seed down any areas that may cause troubles, etc.  It all comes out of my pocket, but I get a decent rate on the rent on the other side of the coin.
"see what happens when you have no practical experience doing something...... you end up playing with calculators and looking stupid on the internet"
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