 modirt wrote:
How does this sound.........three year average yield from crop insurance x three year average price from crop insurance (revenue plan basis), then 30% of whatever that number is?
Or........what other methods are used?
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Unless high yield production(HYP), guessing average county yield(ACY) averages may look like below??
HYP could add 30-50% bu to ACY top ends??
ACY 3yr numbers,,,?
Corn 3yrAve ~ 170,180,190,200?
Soybean ~ 40,50,60,70,80?
Wheat ~ 60,70,80,90,100?
Alfalfa ~ 2,2.5,3,3.5 tons/acre?
How do any of those numbers lineup for your ROI?
3 yr average insurance price per bushel per crop, maybe not best approach?
Right now concerns;
Current soil drought conditions,
current commodity prices,
price of land per acre,
Tariffs,
global commodity supply/demand,
Shift from LeNina to ElNino?
Local weather forecasts,
Global weather forecasts,
Crop insurance options,
interest rates,
inflation,
input costs,
ROI,,,etc.
In a nut shell, it’s an Extremely open set of variables? If it were me, I would not cash rent. I’d crop share contract & I’d use current prices - across the board for current year then use next years numbers for next year etc.. i’d figure my ROI levels & do the math in reverse. Then look at my numbers, consider my position, & make an educated suitable proposal.
I would not cash rent in 2026-28.
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